Observe
Read the latest available daily observations from FRED.
Daily market dataJPY funding stress / global risk appetite
Reverse carry trade signal inactive
Reverse carry trade
is not occurring.
The composite is currently 2/100. Current signals do not show synchronized yen-funded deleveraging.
Yen strengthens→Margins tighten→Risk is sold
Unwind risk2/ 100
Normal
No broad yen-funded deleveraging signal is visible.
Data through Jul 23, 2026 · snapshot02 — MARKET TAPE
Funding pressure, at a glance.
Five-day moves. Select a market to inspect its recent path.
U.S. 2Y5D
4.31%
+15 bp
Japanese yen per U.S. dollar
162.43+0.19%
Jul 1, 2026Jul 21, 2026
Feed: fallback
02B — CARRY PAIR BOARD
Classic vs reverse by pair.
Policy differentials across G10/EM crosses. Reverse-favored means fade the high-yielder (long funder / short high-yield).
Loading pair board…
03 — SIGNAL STACK
What is moving the pulse.
Each signal is normalized from 0 to 100, then weighted into the composite.
38% weight · stronger yen raises repayment pressure
27% weight · option-implied stress raises hedging costs
20% weight · falling collateral accelerates deleveraging
15% weight · local risk-off confirms the transmission
04 — SCENARIO LAB
Stress the unwind yourself.
Move the three primary shocks to see how the risk regime changes.
Modeled unwind risk
43/ 100
Watch
Pressure is building, but the signal is not yet synchronized.
05 — METHODOLOGY
Built to show its work.
The model is intentionally simple: it converts four observable market conditions into a common stress scale and applies fixed weights.
Normalize
Map moves into a 0–100 stress range with disclosed thresholds.
Confirm
Reward synchronized stress across funding and asset channels.
Classify
Translate the composite into five plain-language regimes.