The v11.5 funding and risk legs do not jointly confirm classic carry expansion.
V11.5 state: Calm / uncommitted · neutral baseline
Reverse carry trade
is not occurring.
Scanning the independent pair board for contextual confirmation.
Yen strengthens→Margins tighten→Risk is sold
Hamzilla WatchAll hamsters monitoring
Neither classic carry expansion nor reverse-carry unwind is jointly confirmed by v11.5. Live source synchronization is in progress.
V11.5 unwind intensity
0/ 100
Calm / uncommitted
24h risk · 15mcollecting…
Need more 15-min snapshots
01B — V11.5 SITE-WIDE REGIME AUTHORITY
Calm / uncommitted
After both legs resolve inside the current 48-anchor window, funding and risk retain separate causal directions through the frozen 18/22 Schmitt band. Shoulder-only history fails closed as unresolved. This is the sole site-wide regime decision and the baseline for the separate v11.5 conditional forecast surfaces.
Detector stateCalm / uncommitted
Neither classic carry expansion nor reverse-carry unwind is jointly confirmed by v11.5. Live source synchronization is in progress.
Confidence0%neutral baseline · source synchronizing
Carry expansion0
Unwind stress0
Transition velocity+0.0
Risk breadth0
4H —1D —5D —20D —Vol curve —
Futures observations populate after the first live refresh.
01B — EMAIL ALERTS
Alert signup is checking delivery status.
Join the Reverse Carry Trade Monitor alert list for v11.5 regime transitions and separately labeled pair observations. Unsubscribe at any time.
Signal dispatch
Get the unwind signal without watching the screen.
Site-wide signal language follows only resolved v11.5 state changes. Pair-board observations are contextual and cannot trigger or override the systemic regime. Your address is used only for Reverse Carry Trade Monitor alerts.
01C — V11.5 CONDITIONAL FORECAST
V11.5 Conditional Forecast Is Resolving
The forecast engine starts only after the v11.5 funding and risk legs arrive. No legacy composite or topology multiplier can substitute for them.
Model v11.5 onlyStatus resolvingReason synchronizingHorizon 21 daysClaim conditional scenario
02 — MARKET TAPE
Market tape: checking current pressure.
Five-day moves. Default is the log multi-tape overlay — use All tapes to return from a single chart.
All tapes · log-adjusted overlay
Time
σ event
σ roll
Jul 1, 2026Jul 23, 2026
02A — DIRECTED FLOW MAP
Reverse-carry Transmission Resolving
Arrows connect the same instruments in the all-tapes overlay. Node area scales with absolute log change; solid edges have observed lead-lag support and dotted edges remain topology hypotheses.
Transmission monitored5 overlay components0/6 directed paths active3/6 paths lag-supported
Directed paths · 60D log deltaWidth blends movement with lag support · dotted means hypothesis
- U.S. 2Y→USD / JPYfront-end rate differentialtopology hypothesis · ρ₊₁ -0.15 · +4.14% mean |Δ|
- S&P 500→USD / JPYequity risk → yen fundingtopology hypothesis · ρ₊₁ -0.47 · +2.63% mean |Δ|
- USD / JPY→Nikkei 225yen translation shocktopology hypothesis · ρ₊₁ -0.25 · +6.21% mean |Δ|
- VIX→S&P 500equity repricinglag-supported · ρ₊₁ 0.40 · +9.27% mean |Δ|
- VIX→Nikkei 225Japan risk repricinglag-supported · ρ₊₁ 0.40 · +12.8% mean |Δ|
- VIX→USD / JPYfunding-liquidity spirallag-supported · ρ₊₁ 0.24 · +8.70% mean |Δ|
02B — FULL-SPECTRUM DOMAIN PULSE
Full Spectrum Transmission Resolving
Nine explicit layers test whether rates, funding FX, volatility, carry crosses, equities, credit, commodities, global-liquidity beta, and perpetual leverage are transmitting stress as one system.
Critical-slowing-down observation
—Early-warning spectrum resolving history
USD/JPY and AUD/JPY persistence plus short/long variance inflation. This observation confirms context and never activates the signal.
- USD/JPY EWS
- —
- AUD/JPY EWS
- —
- Regime history
- building
Rates & duration0/4 live · 1 resolved
0quiet · coherence 0 · tail 0
U.S. 2Y 0Funding currencies0/4 live · 1 resolved
0quiet · coherence 0 · tail 0
USD / JPY 0Volatility surface0/3 live · 1 resolved
0quiet · coherence 0 · tail 0
VIX 0Carry breadth0/3 live · 0 resolved
0quiet · coherence 0 · tail 0
awaiting observationsEquity transmission0/4 live · 2 resolved
10quiet · coherence 42 · tail 0
S&P 500 19 · Nikkei 225 0Credit liquidity0/2 live · 0 resolved
0quiet · coherence 0 · tail 0
awaiting observationsCommodity cycle0/3 live · 0 resolved
0quiet · coherence 0 · tail 0
awaiting observationsGlobal liquidity beta0/2 live · 0 resolved
0quiet · coherence 0 · tail 0
awaiting observationsPerpetual leverage & macro dislocation0/16 live · 0 resolved
0quiet · coherence 0 · tail 0
awaiting observationsNetwork deformation · 60D display60D metric window · 5 nodes · median n=17
Directed domain transmission matrixrows lead → columns receive · diagonal = domain pressure · solid cells have lag support
FROM ↓ / TO →RatesFundingVolCarryEquityCreditCommodityLiquidityPerps
Rates0036020000
Funding8000380000
Vol101400340000
Carry000000000
Equity2130110100000
Credit000000000
Commodity000000000
Liquidity000000000
Perps000000000
Funding → Equity38 · co-moving hypothesisRates → Vol36 · lag-supportedVol → Equity34 · lag-supportedEquity → Funding30 · co-moving hypothesisEquity → Rates21 · lag-supported
arXiv:1505.04276 · network / multi-layerMulti-layer systemic risk
FX, rates, volatility, credit, equities, commodities, and crypto remain separate layers before confirmation.
arXiv:1102.1339 · econophysics / spectralCrisis correlation spectrumThe leading correlation eigenvalue measures whether markets are collapsing toward one common mode.
arXiv:2602.10174 · network geometryMultiscale MST instabilityCorrelation-distance MST contraction tracks cross-domain coordination over adjustable horizons.
arXiv:2310.16283 · lead-lag graphsDirected lead-lag networksOne-period lag asymmetry weights directed edges while preserving them as hypotheses, not causal findings.
arXiv:2101.09738 · FX / implied-vol networkVolatility shocks and currency returnsGlobal FX and equity vol innovations load on carry; MOVE/VIX lead and USDJPY rvol enter the vol channel.
arXiv:2410.16858 · volatility spillover graphsDynamic GNNs for volatility forecastingSpillover/MST structure preferred over raw pairwise corr alone for contagion confirmation.
arXiv:2510.22348 · cross-asset ML riskShort-horizon multi-asset risk forecasting5d drawdown features span equities, rates, FX, vol; JPY and front-end rates are high-importance risk-off markers.
arXiv:2310.16841 · equity ↔ FX carryUS stocks and yen carry tradesDirected SPX→USDJPY / SPX→AUDJPY edges encode equity-led risk-off into funding/carry legs.
arXiv:2509.05922 · risk-off / yen momentumPredicting market troughs (ML)Yen strength and FX vol spikes are treated as risk-off / deleveraging signatures, not isolated FX noise.
BNP2008 · carry crash riskCarry trades and currency crashes (Brunnermeier–Nagel–Pedersen)Carry returns are crash-skewed; reverse signals require multi-channel confirmation and gated crowding.
BP2009 · funding–market liquidity spiralMarket liquidity and funding liquidity (Brunnermeier–Pedersen)Funding×vol interaction amplifies only when both channels stress (spiral), not from crowding alone.
arXiv:2310.14973 · cross-asset perpetual leverageReconciling open interest with traded volume in perpetual swapsBTC/ETH plus curated HIP-3 JPY, equity, and commodity perpetual dislocations add a separate confirmation layer; current venue activity affects confidence, not stress direction.
02C — PERPETUAL CONTRACT SPECTRUM
Perpetual leverage is resolving.
BTC/ETH and curated HIP-3 JPY, equity, and commodity perpetuals form the 24/7 off-hours nowcast layer. Intraday direction, funding, mark dislocation, activity, and open interest update the risk dial and conditional paths without rewriting the last established v11.5 futures regime.
Coverage boundary: Awaiting live perpetual observations.
02D — EVENT-MARKET CONFIRMATION
Event-market confirmation is resolving.
Crowd-implied BoJ, Fed, and recession probabilities are observational context. They add a bounded tail component to the off-hours risk nowcast and conditional paths, but cannot alter or activate the structural v11.5 regime decision.
Evidence boundary: Awaiting current event-market observations.
02E — LOG MIN/MAX HEAT MAPS
Log range map: resolving asset-class convergence.
Exact log-adjusted troughs, peaks, and latest values move left to right through the graph’s five asset classes.
Window 60DCurrent cross-graph spread 25.70 ptsPrior checkpoint spread 21.44 pts
02F — CARRY PAIR BOARD
Pair board: loading current regimes.
Independent policy-differential observations across G10/EM crosses. They provide context but cannot override the site-wide v11.5 state: calm.
Loading pair board…
03 — V11.5 SITE AUTHORITY · DIAGNOSTIC TOPOLOGY
V11.5 context topology is resolving the full market spectrum.
The production context view for v11.5 spans nine explicit market domains, including crypto and macro perpetual dislocations. These diagnostics explain the tape but never average into, activate, or override the causal funding/risk state.
Funding currencycontext
0USD/JPY + CHF/JPY
Volatility complexcontext
0VIX + MOVE + SKEW + USD/JPY rvol
Risk assets + creditcontext
0S&P + Nikkei + EWJ + HYG/JNK + BTC + MUFG
Carry-cross breadthcontext
0AUD/JPY + EUR/JPY + USD/MXN + EEM/copper beta
Rates differentialcontext
0US 10Y + Fed Funds futures + US 2Y + TLT duration
Positioning / crowdingcontext
33CFTC JPY net speculative futures
Cross-domain couplingcontext
09 domains + spectrum + MST + directed lag + joint tails
Perpetual leveragecontext
0BTC/ETH + HIP-3 JPY/equity/commodity perp dislocations; current OI/volume gate confidence
Event-market confirmationcontext
0BoJ hike + Fed easing + U.S./Japan recession crowd odds
Instrument layer0 extended factors resolved
Extended factor feeds populate after the first live refresh.
04 — SIGNAL STACK
Calm / uncommitted: funding is the strongest diagnostic context at 0/100.
Each diagnostic is normalized from 0 to 100 for context. V11.5 alone classifies the regime from its causal funding and risk legs.
context · stronger JPY / funding-leg squeeze
context · equity vol, bond vol (MOVE), USDJPY realized
context · equities + HY bond beta (CDS proxy)
context · AUDJPY / EURJPY / USDMXN co-move
context · UST curve path + Fed funds futures
Crypto 0 · macro 0 · updates off-hours risk and forecast, never the structural v11.5 state
BoJ hike + Fed easing + U.S./Japan recession crowd odds · observation only
CFTC JPY futures net specs · observation only
Spectrum + MST + lag coherence · observation only
05 — V11.5 FORECAST LAB
Five-day conditional state: resolving v11.5.
Apply an explicit market shock to the current v11.5 funding and risk axes. During closed core sessions, the starting axes come from the bounded 24/7 nowcast. The result passes through the frozen 18/22 band and seven-state composition as a model-native conditional forecast, not a price target.
V11.5 five-day conditional forecast
0/ 100
Resolving v11.5
Projected unwind intensity after combining the selected shock with the current v11.5 baseline. Forecast confidence reflects the structural detector and, when active, the 24/7 bridge coverage.
Funding leg+0Risk leg+0Carry0Velocity+0Confidence0%Baselinecore
06 — METHODOLOGY
V11.5 status: Calm / uncommitted baseline while live inputs synchronize.
V11.5 is the sole site-wide regime authority. It separates 6J funding from ES/NQ/VIX risk, applies frozen causal 18/22 hysteresis to each leg, and uses SPX/NDX cash validators to distinguish scheduled roll epochs from unexplained discontinuities. Cross-epoch futures returns are null and an observed roll resets only its affected leg. The hero, unwind intensity, flow activation, status language, evidence tape, and alert semantics always publish the latest v11.5 output with its live, last-established, current-leg, or neutral-baseline provenance. When core futures are closed, live Hyperliquid JPY, SP500, JP225, BTC, ETH, copper, and crude intraday candles plus hourly funding, leverage, and event markets update a bounded off-hours risk nowcast. That bridge updates the dial and forecast paths but cannot rewrite the structural state. Rates, positioning, topology, carry breadth, and credit remain diagnostic context. The weather calendar and forecast lab now project conditional v11.5 paths from the same funding and risk legs, frozen 18/22 hysteresis, and seven-state composition. Forecast output is explicitly experimental: the development candidate still failed its frozen promotion gates, so these distributions are not presented as calibrated predictive skill or trading recommendations.
Observe
Yahoo (FX, rates, equities, credit, volatility, commodities, and liquidity beta), Hyperliquid BTC/ETH plus HIP-3 XYZ macro perpetuals, Polymarket policy/macro crowd odds, Frankfurter, FRED fallbacks, and CFTC weekly JPY futures.
Normalize
Map channel moves into 0–100 stress with disclosed thresholds.
Map
Resolve the causal 6J funding leg and ES/NQ/VIX risk leg, then preserve all other market layers as diagnostic context.
Confirm
Apply cash-validator residuals, session scope, roll epochs, freshness, and the frozen 18/22 hysteresis contract. Graph edges remain observations unless lag evidence supports their direction.
Classify
Publish the current seven-state v11.5 output with explicit source provenance; never substitute an older composite.